Friday 30 March 2012

Carroll then vs Carroll now

EPL 2010/11 January: a newly promoted Newcastle are looking good in 9th position with 30 points. Their form largely attributed to their lanky, local striker – Andy Carroll. The big man had 11 goals in 19 games for the Toons. That’s an impressive haul @ nearly a goal every 2nd game. He was so impressive that he got a call up to the full National team at only 21 years of age & everybody was happy!
Such a young, raw talent!! The next Alan Shearer….England’s future saviour!!
January 31st: a whirlwind of confusion, money & insecurity comes to the boil, with 50 million here, some action over there, and the young Andy Carroll caught in the middle of a 35 million pound reaction to the sale of Torres, which he never really asked for…shame.

EPL 2011/12 January: fast forward a year and Carroll is now the laughing stock of the footballing world. What happened in the space of a year? Is it the tactics & surrounding players, or was 2010/11 just a once off? This article tries help decide if the 35 million man can actually regain that form, or if he was destined for humiliation. Is there a better way to build-up to Sunday’s match? No. That was a rhetorical question.
    
These figures were taken from Carroll’s first 19 appearances for Newcastle up until he was sold in January 2011. It’s compared with Carroll’s first 19 games for Liverpool from the same period (Aug-Jan) in the 2011/12 season.

It’s obvious he’s performances key to being a striker have dropped noticeably. But why? Can he not understand the Scouse accent? Different climate? Well Jose Enrique made the same switch from Newcastle & is performing well, and I’m sure he understands the Scouse accent even less.

Many Liverpool fans have been claiming that a decent winger would help Carroll score more goals. This confused me since most of Carroll’s goals at Newcastle were from central assistance (Joey Barton & Kevin Nolan) and not the wide areas. Of Carroll’s 11 goals at Newcastle, 8 of them came from an assist. Of those 8 assists, only 2 came from a wide cross and guess who those 2 crosses came from? The centre mid, Joey Barton. Carroll did also score directly from a corner with a Barton assist once again. In fact, 7 out of 8 of Carroll’s assists came from a central player. The only wide player to assist Carroll you ask? Jose Enrique.

So obviously a team with more centre mids than goals would be just right for Carroll, but no, it’s not.
So the problem isn’t the accent, nor the weather, the food is just as bad and it’s not that he’s requiring wingers to score…is this merely an extended run of unlucky games, or is he a dud?
One odd stat was slightly noticeable. Although he received nearly half as many passes at Liverpool, Carroll was caught offside more than double the amount of times. Only 4 offsides compared to 10 at Liverpool. That’s strange since 10 of Carroll’s 11 goals for Newcastle were inside the box. When taking a look at Carroll’s position for each team, we can start to see why.

Looking at Carroll’s only EPL hattrick to date, notice how his & Barton’s areas of play overlap. So much so, it’s hard to tell them apart:
Here are some more screenshots of Carroll succeeding & scoring when deeper at Newcastle. Notice how he almost always overlaps Barton/Nolan and hardly ever pushes further than his wide players: 

Here are screen shots of the 2 Liverpool games Carroll scored in.
1. Carroll started in this game & had 3 shots, all on target & wasn’t caught offside at all.
2. Carroll started behind Suarez and took 7 shots (2nd most for the season). Carroll also received his assist from outside the box, took the ball into the box & scored.
Screen shots of Carroll’s bad games where people laughed at him afterwards. Boo hoo. Anyway, he’s the furthest forward. A typical target man.
  
Here’s a screen shot of the last game Liverpool won 3-0 against Everton. Carroll had 2 shots inside the box & created 2 chances in this game, yet played as deep as Gerrard:

It’s true all but 1 of Carroll’s goals across this period have been scored outside the box, but it appears him arriving in the box is more successful than using him as a target man. Sounds strange because of his height – its obvious he should be a target man right? Maybe this is why he’s asked to play further forward than Suarez. So far the games Carroll has played well in have seen him play behind Suarez rather than in front.

Perhaps the key to Carroll is not to pigeon-hole him into a cliché – tall striker must stand far away and we’ll randomly drill balls to him then it’s inevitable he will score – but to use him as a deeper forward who allows Suarez the freedom of the box while encouraging the midfield to push up when attacking. Torres had the pace to play off the last defender and it worked for Liverpool. Suarez has the pace too. Carroll could be pivotal if used differently.

Of course he could just be rubbish and in need of a haircut.
Thank you for your time.










Friday 23 March 2012

The Magpies!

'Sup Footies nuts?

Let's think back to the start of the 2008/2009 Barclays Premier league shall we? Kevin Keegan took his Newcastle side to Old Trafford and got a brilliant result.The scorelines level at 1-1 after the 90.

Things were looking up. Denis Wise was part of the technical team, Kevin Keegan was in charge again and Newcastle were looking like a decent footballing side! This was going to be Newcastle's season to break into Europe...so we thought. However, a bid came in from Aston Villa for (The now overpaid) James Milner close to the transfer deadline, which Newcastle accepted! It was a baffling scenario as, at that time, Milner was a star in the making. Someone touted to be the next best thing. Why on earth would Kevin Keegan accept the offer. Well it wasn't him after all who accepted the offer. It was in fact Denis Wise. Who was only acting on behalf of big fat Ashley. Who was REALLY acting on behalf of his pocket. Are you still following me? If so, Good. If not, get someone else to explain to you.



Everything started getting silly after then. Joe "My-hearts-no-so-good" Kinnear took over on a permanent basis for 20+ games, then it was the turn of Alan "can-I-actually-coach" Shearer. All of this, with Fat Ashley trying his BEST to destroy the club he supported (well that's what I gathered anyway)

To cut a long story short, at the end of the season, Newcastle got relegated to the Championship. The only thing GOOD to come out of this situation was, everyone who follows football now knew that Fat Ashley is a tw*t. The following 2 months following their relegation, Newcastle fans were distraught. Newcastle were in the Championship, Ashley was still owner (albeit trying his best to sell the club) and there was no decent enough candidate to take them back up to the Premier League.

When The announcement was made that Chris Houghton would take care of Newcastle, Magpies fans weren't exactly thrilled. Fast forward a season, Newcastle were Championship Champs. And back in the premier league. And the man to bring them there was a man who was at the club when all this turmoil was happening, an under rated man, Chris Houghton. It started looking good again. Newcastle were looking decent. Joey Barton, Kevin Nolan were pulling the strings. They were solid. 11th in the premier league. And looking like they will survive the season.

Then, disaster! Ashley struck again! Firing Houghton for no reason whatsoever. At that time, the 1st thing that came to mind was "Down they go again." But they actually hired someone with some sort of premier league experience. Alan Pardew. His record didn't exactly read that great. FA Cup Final with West Ham, relegated the next season. But Ashley the tw*t thought that he would be the best bet.



They managed to survive that season. And they started this season off brilliantly. They made (in my mind) some of the best bit of business in the transfer marker. Ben Arfa, Sandtone, Marveaux, Tiote, Krul and Demba Ba, to name but a few. The latter is the front runner for buy of the season. Why Newcastle were the only club after him when The Hammers got relegated is beyond me. Coloccini is fast becoming a world class Centre Half. Danny Simpson is starting to look every bit as capable of a Right back as Kyle Walker from Spurs. But the best sale they could have made was getting rid of the rotten apple that is Joey Barton. NEVER before has a man poisoned a dressing room as much as him.

So where has it gone right for Newcastle? Well firstly, Denis Wise is no longer at the club. Fat Ashley is poking his nose less and less in the running and transfers OUT of the team. They sold the old guard/trouble makers (Barton, Nolan, Carroll) and they bought players who compliment each other. With Cisse the new addition to their forward line, they really look more and more likely to get into Europe next season. And I think that (without injuries to key players) getting anything less that a top eight would be considered a failure.

But what will happen next season though?Pardew is not known to be a 2 season type of manager. Will Fat Ashley lose the plot again? And sell his assets? Will we see the return of a former player?*cough Carroll* All I know is, that I'm just glad they will be up there in the Premier League for us to figure this out. Or to rather see it unravel...

Howay the Magpies!


Tuesday 20 March 2012

Barclay's Premier League dominance in the UCL

Today, A brand new addition to Footie call! A man with a love for the game like no other. A man who KNOWS his stats, a man who has a strange fetish for Bon Jovi…uhm… Footie nuts, I give to you Mr Themba Sweet!

So there’s a group of chaps called UEFA who basically govern professional football in Europe. They also rank the teams & leagues that play in their prestigious competitions – the greatest one being the UEFA Champions League.

This season the EPL teams did poorly in Europe which triggered off a mass social network panic/frenzy of statements about how much better La Liga is.
So to see if this is true over a longer period than a few months, I’ve gone back to 1996-97 season to see who really is dominant in Europe from then till now. The group stage is not important since UEFA decides the maximum amount of clubs these top 7 leagues are allowed to enter. So I’ve taken stats from the important QF stage onwards, from 1996 to date:




It turns out that over the past 15 seasons, the EPL has made more appearances in the Quarter-final & Semi-final with the joint amount of Final appearances in the Final. Yes Spain has been the eventual winner more times, but the range of EPL teams that reaches the QF & SF stages is a statement as to the diversity & strength of the league. If it were only Man UTD carrying the EPL, there would be much less appearances on the chart above.
Here’s some thoughts to stick in your pipe & smoke:
·         The only country to have 4 teams in the QF stage in a single season is the EPL & they’ve done it twice
·         As for the SF, there have been 3 seasons in a row where 3 out of the 4 Semi-finalists were from England – only league to achieve this also
·         EPL made SF appearances for 6 seasons in a row, contributing 13 of the 24 places. So basically every 2nd team in the Semi’s was English for 6 years
·         Over the past 7 seasons, there have been 7 EPL appearances in the Finals
·         There have been 3 finals in this period where both Finalists were from the same league: EPL 07/08 – La Liga 99/00 – Italy 02/03

Over the past 16 years, the EPL is the only league to have made 100%, 16/16 QF appearances (La Liga failed to reach QF in 04/05 – the Istanbul final).
11 of the past 15 seasons (since we haven’t yet reached SF 11/12 we count the past 15 seasons) have seen an EPL team in the SF. Only 4 SF without the EPL, & 3 of those missing seasons were over 10 years ago!!
So this shows that in recent years especially, the EPL has been dominant in the UCL. This also shows the comparative weakness of the remaining leagues.
Germany: in 16 years, Germany has only made 17 QF appearances & Holland only making 4! In fact, Eredivisie haven’t even reached a final since 95/96 (Rijkaard, De Boer, Davids & co.).

In fact since the EPL dominance over the past 7 seasons (7 EPL appearances) there have been 0 French, Dutch or Portuguese teams in the final, 1 German & 3 appearances from La Liga & Serie A.

The EPL remains the biggest force in Europe. A larger range of La Liga teams are entered into the competition, but a larger amount of La Liga teams fail to reach the QF stage. The quality of the 3rd & 4th placed La Liga teams appears to be lower than the EPL if you consider the figures – in the previous 8 seasons, there has only been 1 occasion when there were more La Liga teams in the QF stage than EPL teams.

The truth is that La Liga teams win the finals they do reach the majority of the time. Respect is due to both leagues, both of whom are clearly ahead of the chasing pack in the Champions League. This season is the 1st in the past 7 years that only 1 EPL team has made the QF. It’s likely that this is just a bad year for the EPL. Although it might be a good time to mention this: 98/99 there was only 1 EPL team in the QF stage. That team went on to win one of the most memorable Champions League’s ever – Manchester United 99. There’s hope for Chelsea!!